Tuesday, September 10, 2002

An analysis of how Chirac's plan may work out.

Though both China and Russia have publicly stated their opposition to a military assault on Baghdad, Washington hopes that both can be convinced not to use their veto if a resolution on Iraq comes before the Security Council. Russia may be tempted to abstain if the United States offers it lucrative oil deals and promises that multi-billion-dollar agreements it is negotiating with Iraq will be honoured if Saddam falls. China rarely votes against initiatives when all other opposition is muted, preferring to cast its veto only when resolutions directly affect it or Taiwan, which it believes belongs to the mainland.

Could be, but I still think China might see it as an opportunity to block America.

On Friday Colin Powell, the Secretary of State, is to meet with the 10 members of the Security Council who do not hold veto power, and whose support for the U.S. plan could prove crucial.

That is provovative.

Diplomats said yesterday any explicit mention of the use of force would be resisted by several members, including veto-wielding members such as Russia. But Security Council resolutions often have to be devised with language that is acceptable to differing international agendas and that can be interpreted differently from one country to the next.

"A resolution might use the words that there would be the 'severest consequences' if Iraq does not allow the inspectors unfettered access to facilities," said one Security Council diplomat. "This would allow a country such as Russia to say that it had not actually authorized the use of force. On the other hand, everyone knows how the Americans would interpret it."

If you insist. I am still skeptical of it playing out like that. I have begun seeing this as a power play between the Transnational Porgressives and America. If they can force America to submit to the UN in its quest for a defensive pre-emptive war, this will be a major victory for the forces of Transnational Progressivism. If they can force us to plead with the UN for approval to physically defend ourselves they can leverage it to force things like the ICC, Kyoto, Global Taxes, CEDAW and a host of other measures that are in violation of the Constitution.

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