Voice from the Commonwealth
Commentary, World Views and Occasional Rants from a small 'l' libertarian in Massachussetts

"If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest for freedom, go home and leave us in peace. We seek not your council nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen." - Samuel Adams

Thursday, August 08, 2002

The Iraqi National Congress sounds pretty optimistic here. This is a bit over-exuberant but in the past their intelligence has often proven more accurate than that generated by our own agencies.

They are saying that military action on our part will be minimal as there is so much unrest even within Saddam's army. Seeing their performance (including those few groups of the Republican Guard that actually saw action) in the first Gulf war I think this may be possible. There may not be as effective a fighting force equivalent to the Northern Alliance (who, don't forget, got the same media treatment that the Kurds and opposition groups in Iraq are getting now) but, the people of Oraq are probably better prepared to aid in an uprising, or get out of the way.

That being said, it would still require a large initial force to unseat Saddam and to be prepared to step in if opposition were faacing defeat. I do think, as I say below that a post-war Iraq will not be the disaster and quagmire that is being hyped. As long as we (or opposition troops) can defend the oil fields, the newly installed government will need initial funds and equipment to get started but they would soon be on their feet, with a fairly unified government (assuming they, the Turks and the Kurds can work something out) with a decent (compared to Aghanistan) infrastructure would soon be pumping oil, making money and lessening the influence of House Saud.

So, to a dgree they may be right. I hope they are and I hope they know more than they are letting on in terms of dissafection even within the ranks of the Republican Guard.

< email | 8/08/2002 09:57:00 PM | link

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