Thursday, May 16, 2002

I was thinking about the war and the changes in its meaning, causes and outcomes/repercussions since the end of World War II. It seems that international intervention since 1945 has made war (conventional and unconventional) a radically different beast. It is no longer allowed to run its course to a distinct victor and loser and as a result thugs have been using it as a policy tool without fear of what will become of them if they lose.

The Arab nations know they can attack Israel (as they have in the past) and never have to fear a total defeat. The world community will step in before that happens and they will live to fight again another day. Heck, they won't even have to pay reparations or give up any territory (in fact they will claim back territory they lost in a war they started). The same goes for Saddam, Kim Il Jong, Pol Pot, Mugabe and countless others. Separatist movements (just or unjust) know they can be as brutal and murderous as they like and governments know they can be just as brutal suppressing those movements. There will always be some other country to stand behind them to rally the international community to call for truces, compromises, treaties and airing of grievances.

Without a clear loser, who must concede that their cause is lost, there will always be groups willing to charge into the breach, knowing that at worst they will probably face exile. Or at best a seat at the head of a government and a chance to speak to an enthusiastic UN General Council. There is nothing to discourage these thugs from starting wars. There are now murderous insurgencies and separatist movements everywhere and whether numbering tens-of-thousands or a hundred they cannot be completely crushed as international tut-tutting holds back the more rational less murderous side.

Obviously we can’t allow the world to fall back into the days of globe spanning World Wars with tens of millions dead. Nukes, biological and chemical weapons make the world too dangerous for that. Yet there must be a sea change in international attitudes. Aggressors and tyrants who murder their own and other populations need to be face dire and mortal consequences. Too many dictators and tyrants live out comfy retirements in another country or face a trial that makes a mockery of what they have done then live out their lives in comfy cell while showing that there really is not a severe penalty for genocide and war. This needs to end or we will have thousands of small scale wars for each group with a professed grievance.

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