Wednesday, January 29, 2003

I hear a lot of commentators say that the UN could be left in the trash bin of history if the US has to lead a coalition against Saddam without UNSC backing. But, I don't hear people talking about the fact that the EU could also be irreparably damaged. What will happen to the hopes of a unified European voice when this happens? Britain will prove to France and Germany that they will not submit to the will of their 'betters' and the smaller nations (especially the Eastern Europeans) could well become very disillusioned with the commitment to security offered by a unified Europe. If they can't agree that Saddam is bad and needs to go, following their fecklessness in dealing with Kosovo (in their own back yards), they will have a hard time trusting any future assurances. As Germany and France scramble to consolidate power and breach all of the rules they claim other must enforce (France has been sited more times than any other nation, Germany is running deficits in breach of EU rules, among other things) the smaller nations may get restless and the Brits become less enchanted with the whole idea (public opinion in every country that is not in the Euro shows they want to keep it that way. And even the German people are massively in favor of going back to the Dm). What will happen when Britain, The Netherlands, Spain and Italy along with the Eastern European countries march off to Iraq with us while France and Germany scream non/nein? It could be as deadly for the EU as it will be for the UN.

As long as Bush is prepared to try and bring those nations in from the cold and try to include them in the 'special relationship' (of course we can never be as close to them as we are with Britain and Australia we can easily forge very close bonds with the Eastern Europeans) I think that would be great. Otherwise they may be a little miffed that they supported us so hard and risked alienation with their neighbors and we say "Thanks, see you later".

By the way, I think Bush should be commended by the multilateralists, he has given the UN every chance to maintain some semblance of legitimacy. Last night he didn't make a new case against Saddam, he made the UN's case. One more time he said to the UN, you have all of the information you need you have stated why Saddam needs to go, face it.

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